The Ukrainian futile dreams

Regardless of the current situation in Crimea, the Ukrainians chose a very inopportune time for their uprising. Actually, times for uprising are hardly ever opportune. Sometimes they are planned and prepared but seldom are they well-prepared. The reason is just one. People, who are usually not so fast at putting their lives at stake, can show lots of determination if brought to desperation.

When the Ukrainians understood that they were definitely going to stay in the Russian zone of influence, or even more, to tighten the bonds of dependence, they lost their tempers. It is not the 1960s or 70s, when the Soviet Union did its best to isolate its own people from the knowledge of life in the West. People travel, people watch satellite TV and use the Internet. Whatever we think about the West, however we complain about the dark side of capitalism, regular people would always choose this horrible West rather than Russia and her system of control over the former Soviet Republics. Actually all of them, including Russia herself, are formally democracies (even Belarus under her autocratic president, Alexander Lukashenko) yet ruled by dictators and groups of oligarchs (millionaires inseparably connected with the ruling political parties and their leaders). However it is the West that many people there associate with the civilization of real democracy, personal freedom, civil rights and opportunities.

Writing about the inopportune time for the Ukrainian uprising I meant the situation in the West. The economic crisis, the threat of economic catastrophe in Southern Europe and the dependence on Russian gas and oil of the EU member states, especially Germany cooperating with Russia in this field, all those don’t make good auspices for Ukraine’s prospect of leaving the Russian zone of influence. The West has actually nothing to offer Ukraine. Moreover, the West has a lot to lose. An economic cold war with Russia will definitely not help overcome the western crisis. Poland, which already buys the Russian gas at significantly higher prices than other EU countries, risks a loss of the Russian market for her agricultural products. Byronic heroes will say a real human being doesn’t care for such ‘trivia’ but realists have to take them into consideration.

Nevertheless, at the moment, whining about the Ukrainians starting their movement at an inopportune time makes little sense. The situation has its own dynamics, has gathered pace and now the most important thing to do is to stop Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin.